文章来源：UNWTO 官网
COTTM 团队编译
随着国际旅游业的持续反弹，联合国世界旅游组织(UNWTO）预测，截至2022年底，国际旅游业有望恢复至疫前水平的65%。
据联合国世界旅游组织（UNWTO）最新一期的《世界旅游晴雨表》显示，2022年前三季度，全球国际游客数量约为7亿人次，同比2021年增长133%，相当于2019年水平的63%。预计2022年全球国际旅游有望恢复至疫情前水平的65%。此结果是由被压抑已久的强烈的旅游需求，以及全球对旅游业复苏信心的提升和越来越多目的地取消入境限制而推动的。
报告显示，2022年1月全球国际游客人次较2019年水平下降64%；至今年9月，全球国际游客人次较2019年同期水平仅下降27%，这突显了旅游业正从历史上最严重危机中复苏的速度。据统计，仅2022年第三季度，全球国际游客数量已达到3.4亿人次，接近2022年前三季度国际游客总人次的一半。
欧洲继续引领全球旅游业的复苏
报告指出，欧洲继续引领全球旅游业的复苏。2022年前三季度，欧洲地区的国际游客达到了4.77亿人次（占全球国际游客总人次的68%），同比增长126%，为疫情前同期水平的81%。这一数字主要受到欧洲本区域内强烈的旅游需求以及大量来自美国的游客的影响。欧洲在第三季度的表现尤为强劲，入境人数几乎达到了2019年同期水平的90%。
与此同时，中东地区国际游客人次同比增长225%，为疫情前同期水平的77%。 非洲、美洲地区国际游客人次同也实现了强劲增长，分别同比增长166%和106%，分别恢复至2019年水平的63%和66%。亚太地区国际游客人次同比增长230%，2022年前三季度的入境人数增加了两倍多，这得益于许多目的地已开放，包括9月底刚开放的日本。然而，亚太地区的游客人次仍比2019年水平下降83%。中国是该地区的主要客源市场，目前仍处于封闭状态。
游客人次和旅游收入达到或超越疫前水平
2022年前三季度，一些次区域的入境人次也达到了疫情前水平的80-90%。其中，西欧和南地中海欧洲的复苏速度最快，分别为88%和86%，达到2019年的水平。加勒比、中美洲（均为82%）和北欧（81%）也取得了强劲的增长速度。截止至今年9月（共9个月内），入境人次已超越疫情前水平的目的地国家包括阿尔巴尼亚、埃塞俄比亚、洪都拉斯、安道尔、波多黎各、多米尼加共和国、哥伦比亚、萨尔瓦多和冰岛。
仅在9月份，中东地区和加勒比地区入境人次已超越了疫情前同期水平，较2019年分别增长了3%和1%。中美洲（降低7%）、北欧（降低9%）以及南欧和地中海欧洲（降低10%）的入境人次与疫情前水平接近。
2022年前7至9个月，一些目的地的国际旅游收入显著增加，包括塞尔维亚、罗马尼亚、土耳其、拉脱维亚、葡萄牙、巴基斯坦、墨西哥、摩洛哥和法国。主要客源市场的出境游支出也出现了复苏，与2019年相比，法国的出境游支出较2019年仅下降了8%。2022年前六至九个月，出境消费支出强劲的其他市场为：德国、比利时、意大利、美国、卡塔尔、印度和沙特阿拉伯。
航空及酒店需求猛增
旅游业的强劲复苏也反映在联合国世界旅游组织旅游业复苏追踪报告中记录的各种行业指标中，例如航空运力和酒店入住率。今年1-8月，国际航线的航空座位容量（以可用座位公里数或ASK衡量）达到2019年水平的62%，欧洲（78%）和美洲（76%）的表现最为强劲。全球范围内运力已增至2019年水平的86%，中东（99%）几乎达到了疫前的水平（国际航空运输协会IATA）。
与此同时，根据STR的数据，9月全球酒店入住率从1月的43%升至66%。因此，继7月和8月录得74%的入住率后，欧洲以77%的入住率领先。美洲（66%）、中东（63%）和非洲（61%）9月份的总体入住率也达到了60%，9月份入住率最高的包括南地中海欧洲79%、西欧75%和大洋洲70%。
充满挑战 谨慎乐观
联合国世界旅游组织（UNWTO）在本报告最后写道：充满挑战的经济环境，包括持续的高通胀和能源价格飙升，加上俄乌战争的紧张局势，都可能会影响第四季度和2023年旅游业的复苏步伐。联合国世界旅游组织（UNWTO）旅游专家小组的最新调查显示，2022年最后四个月的信心水平有所下降，反映出更加谨慎的乐观情绪。尽管复苏步伐放缓带来了越来越多的挑战，但2022年国际旅游业出口收入可能达到1.2-1.3万亿美元，较2021年增长60-70%，达到2019年1.8万亿美元的70-80%。
UNWTO官网英文原文如下：
TOURISM RECOVERY ACCELERATES TO REACH 65% OF PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS
International tourism is on track to reach 65% of pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022 as the sector continues to bounce back from the pandemic.
An estimated 700 million tourists travelled internationally between January and September, more than double (+133%) the number recorded for the same period in 2021. This equates to 63% of 2019 levels and puts the sector on course to reach 65% of its pre-pandemic levels this year, in line with UNWTO scenarios. Results were boosted by strong pent-up demand, improved confidence levels and the lifting of restrictions in an increasing number of destinations.
Highlighting the speed at which the sector has recovered from the worst crisis in its history, the latest World Tourism Barometer from UNWTO reveals that monthly arrivals were 64% below 2019 levels in January 2022 and had reached -27% by September. An estimated 340 million international arrivals were recorded in the third quarter of 2022 alone, almost 50% of the nine-month total.
Europe continues to lead global recovery
Europe continues to lead the rebound of international tourism. The region welcomed 477 million international arrivals in January-September 2022 (68% of the world total), hitting 81% of pre-pandemic levels. This was more than double that of 2021 (+126%) with results boosted by strong intra-regional demand and travel from the United States. Europe saw particularly robust performance in Q3, when arrivals reached almost 90% of 2019 levels.
At the same time, the Middle East saw international arrivals more than triple (+225%) year on year in January-September 2022, climbing to 77% of pre-pandemic levels. Africa (+166%) and the Americas (+106%) also recorded strong growth compared to 2021, reaching 63% and 66% of 2019 levels, respectively. In Asia and the Pacific (+230%) arrivals more than tripled in the first nine months of 2022, reflecting the opening of many destinations, including Japan at the end of September. However, arrivals in Asia and the Pacific remained 83% below 2019 levels. China, a key source market for the region, remains closed.
Arrivals and receipts at – or above – pre-pandemic levels
Several subregions reached 80% to 90% of their pre-pandemic arrivals in January-September 2022. Western Europe (88%) and Southern Mediterranean Europe (86%) saw the fastest recovery towards 2019 levels. The Caribbean, Central America (both 82%) and Northern Europe (81%) also recorded strong results. Destinations reporting arrivals above pre-pandemic levels in the nine months through September include Albania, Ethiopia, Honduras, Andorra, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Colombia, El Salvador and Iceland.
In the month of September arrivals surpassed pre-pandemic levels in the Middle East (+3% over 2019) and the Caribbean (+1%) and came close in Central America (-7%), Northern Europe (-9%) and Southern and Mediterranean Europe (-10%).
Meanwhile, some destinations recorded notable increases in international tourism receipts in the first seven to nine months of 2022, including Serbia, Romania, Türkiye, Latvia, Portugal, Pakistan, Mexico, Morocco and France. The recovery can also be seen in outbound tourism spending from major source markets, with strong results from France where expenditure reached -8% through September, compared to 2019. Other markets reporting strong spending in the first six to nine months of 2022 were Germany, Belgium, Italy, the United States, Qatar, India and Saudi Arabia.
Strong demand for air travel and hotel accommodation
The robust recovery of tourism is also reflected in various industry indicators such as air capacity and hotel metrics, as recorded in the UNWTO Tourism Recovery Tracker. Air seat capacity on international routes (measured in available seat-kilometres or ASKs) in January-August reached 62% of 2019 levels, with Europe (78%) and the Americas (76%) posting the strongest results. Worldwide domestic capacity rose to 86% of 2019 levels, with the Middle East (99%) virtually achieving pre-pandemic levels (IATA).
Meanwhile, according to STR, global hotel occupancy rates reached 66% in September 2022, from 43% in January. Europe led the way with occupancy levels at 77% in September 2022, following rates of 74% in July and August. The Americas (66%), the Middle East (63%) and Africa (61%) all saw occupancy rates above 60% in September. By subregion, Southern Mediterranean Europe (79%), Western Europe (75%) and Oceania (70%) showed the highest occupancy rates in September 2022.
Cautious optimism for the months ahead
The challenging economic environment, including persistently high inflation and soaring energy prices, aggravated by the Russian offensive in Ukraine, could weigh on the pace of recovery in Q4 and into 2023. The latest survey among the UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts shows a downgrade in confidence levels for the last four months of 2022, reflecting more cautious optimism. Despite growing challenges pointing to a softening of the recovery pace, export revenues from tourism could reach USD 1.2 to 1.3 trillion in 2022, a 60-70% increase over 2021, or 70-80% of the USD 1.8 trillion recorded in 2019.
